標題：Golden Era for Shipping Seen Ahead as Geopolitics Boosts Pricing
連結：https://reurl.cc/mMNb7A
來源：Bloomberg 彭博社
記者：By Alex Longley and Aine Quinn
內容：
If there was a universal theme at the parties, presentations and meetings in t
he world’s shipping capital Athens this week, it’s that bad times are good f
or business.
That’s to say that geopolitical conflicts and doubts about the supply of new
ships mean shipowners are bracing for a prolonged earnings boom.
Andy Dacy, managing director and group head of the global transportation group
at JPMorgan Asset Management — whose multi-billion dollar porftolio includes
extensive investments in the maritime industry, encapsulated it best.
“Thinking about shipping over the next 10-15 years, one could argue despite t
he fact that we have these challenges that we are moving into a golden era alb
eit underpinned by difficult dark things,” he said at a forum organized by Ca
pital Link during the Posidonia shipping week.
The cost of hiring ships has been about a third higher than the average for th
e last ten years so far in 2024, according to Clarkson Research Services Ltd.,
a unit of the world’s largest shipbroker, propelled in part by ships sailing
thousands of miles extra to avoid attacks in the Red Sea. Similiarly, Russia
’s invasion of Ukraine has led to trade dislocations that are forcing oil tan
kers on far longer voyages than would otherwise be the case.
Speaking at events organized as part of the Posidonia conference in Athens, so
me executives said they were eying a potentially protracted era of higher earn
ings, based in part on a bet that the global geopolitical environment will rem
ain more dangerous for longer, and a supply of new ships that remains relative
ly low.
In every private conversation, it was the recurring theme. Some said the troub
led geopolitical times are good for business now, while others said they don’
t see an end in sight to current disruptions.
In addition to rising geopolitical risk, owners have another reason to be bull
ish.
Although there has been some ordering of new ships as earnings soar — causing
some nerves about whether a boom can truly be sustained — by historical sta
ndards, the pace of buying has been relatively subdued given strong freight ma
rkets.
That’s in large part because shipowners aren’t sure what the fuel that will
replace traditional oil propulsion will be, meaning that vessel orders haven’
t accumulated in the same way as during shipping’s last great boom period in
2008.
“We have not really seen any alternative fuel that is either available, or ve
ry promising for the future,” said Ioannis Alafouzos, chairman of Okeanis Eco
Tankers Corp. “We are quite pessimistic about alternative fuels in fact. Fra
nkly speaking, we do not know where we are going, so for the time being we are
sticking with conventional engines.”
Some argue that rates are currently so good, that shipping’s efforts to decar
bonize are also likely to slow. That’s because such high earnings offer littl
e incentive to put ships in dockyards and carry out work that would make them
ready to burn cleaner fuels, according to DNV Maritime.
Even this week, as shipowners and brokers discussed the outlook for the market
on the Mediterranean coastline, Houthi rebels continued to fire salvos of mis
siles at vessels in the Red Sea.
One Greek owner said he expects that the impact of the attacks on shipping in
the region could be felt even more acutely in the second half of the year for
container and bulk commodity ships as those fleets get even more stretched out
.
That leaves owners bracing for a world that is more volatile for longer.
“At what point do black swans become not black swans?” Hing Chao, executive
chairman of Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings, which owns a fleet of oil t
ankers and commodity carriers, said at the Capital Link Forum. “We’re reachi
ng that point in the world unfortunately. As far as shipping is concerned I th
ink in the short-to-medium any kind of disruption would be beneficial to shipp
ing, but medium-to-long term it’s bad for everybody.”
Chat GPT翻譯：
如果說本週在世界航運之都雅典舉行的派對、演講和會議上有一個普遍主題，那就是壞時
期對生意有利。
也就是說，地緣政治衝突和對新船供應的疑慮意味著船東們正在為一個持續的盈利繁榮期
做準備。
摩根大通資產管理公司全球運輸組主管Andy Dacy最能總結這一點。他在Posidonia航運週
期間由Capital Link組織的論壇上說：“考慮到未來10-15年的航運業，儘管我們面臨這
些挑戰，但可以說我們正在進入一個黃金時代，儘管它是由困難和黑暗的事情支撐著。”
根據全球最大船舶經紀公司Clarkson Research Services Ltd的數據，2024年船舶租賃成
本比過去十年的平均水平高出約三分之一，部分原因是船舶航行數千英里以避開紅海的攻
擊。同樣，俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭導致的貿易中斷迫使油輪進行比平時更長的航行。
在雅典Posidonia會議期間舉行的活動上，一些高管表示，他們看好一個潛在的高盈利時
代，這部分基於全球地緣政治環境將持續更長時間的風險， 並且預期新船供應仍將保
持相對較低。
在每一次私人對話中，這都是反覆出現的主題。一些人說當前的地緣政治動盪對生意有利
，而另一些人則認為目前的中斷沒有結束的跡象。
除了地緣政治風險上升，船東們還有另一個樂觀的理由。儘管隨著收益飆升，有些人訂購
了新船，這讓一些人對繁榮能否持續感到緊張，但從歷史標準來看，鑒於運費市場強勁，
購船的步伐仍然相對緩慢。
這主要是因為船東們不確定將替代傳統石油推進的新燃料是什麼，這意味著船舶訂單不像
2008年航運業上一次大繁榮時那樣積累。
Okeanis Eco Tankers Corp.董事長Loannis Alafouzos說：“我們並沒有看到任何可用或
非常有前景的替代燃料。事實上，我們對替代燃料相當悲觀。坦率地說，我們不知道我們
的替代方向，所以目前我們仍然使用傳統引擎。”
一些人認為，目前的運費率如此之好，以至於航運業的減碳努力也可能會放緩。DNV Mari
time指出，這是因為如此高的收益使船舶進入船塢並進行準備燃燒更清潔燃料的工作缺乏
激勵。
即使在本週，當船東和經紀人在地中海沿岸討論市場前景時，胡塞叛軍繼續在紅海對船隻
發射導彈。一位希臘船東表示，他預計這些攻擊對該地區航運的影響可能在今年下半年對
集裝箱和散裝貨船更加明顯，因為這些船隊將更加分散。
這讓船東們為一個更長期的波動世界做好準備。
“黑天鵝事件什麼時候不再是黑天鵝事件？” Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdin
gs（擁有一支油輪和貨物運輸船隊）的執行董事長趙卿在Capital Link論壇上說。“不幸
的是，我們正處於這樣的世界。就航運而言，我認為在短期到中期，任何形式的中斷對航
運有利，但從中長期來看，這對所有人都是不利的。”
心得：
大摩前陣子發新聞不是看衰航運嗎？小摩怎麼又看好了？
看起來目前促使運價上漲的地緣政治問題
追根究底背後都有美國在搞事
1.俄烏戰爭
2.以巴衝突
3.中美貿易戰
美國玩爭霸，航運水手在旁邊喝湯
謝謝美國爸爸請客！
拜登我的超人！
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