原文標題：
Elon Musk predicts mild 18-month recession, teases possible share buybacks
原文連結：
https://reurl.cc/NRrvn5
發布時間：2022/8/4
記者署名：Lora Kolodny
原文內容：
At the Tesla 2022 shareholders’ meeting on Thursday, investors asked CEO
Elon Musk how the company plans to spend its money in coming years, and about
his global economic outlook.
Musk joked that “making macroeconomic prognostications is a recipe for
disaster” but nonetheless estimated that “we are past peak inflation” and
likely to see a “relatively mild recession,” lasting for about 18 months.
馬斯克開玩笑說“做出宏觀經濟預測是災難的根源”，但仍然估計“我們已經過了通脹峰
值”，可能會看到“相對溫和的衰退”，持續約 18 個月。
The CEO based his economic analysis on the commodity prices Tesla is being
asked to pay for materials and goods it needs to make electric vehicles.
“We do get a fair bit of insight into where prices of things are going over
time because when you’re making millions of cars, you have to purchase
commodities many months in advance of when they’re needed,” he said.
In the second quarter of 2022, Russia’s war on Ukraine and the ongoing Covid
pandemic in China hampered Tesla’s Shanghai factory, and worsened supply
chain snarls, parts shortages and labor problems throughout the auto industry.
Musk was also asked how Tesla plans to use its capital in coming years. The
CEO said Tesla will primarily increase its capital expenditures and research
and development spending “as fast as we can do so without wasting it.” He
added that “a sort of share buyback is possible,” depending on what Tesla’
s future cash flow looks like.
Musk, who is also the CEO of SpaceX, said he “wouldn’t want to commit” to
Tesla share buybacks just yet, and that a force majeure event somewhere could
change the equation. However, he reiterated that if Tesla’s future cashflow
is looking solid, and the world is “relatively stable,” then a “share
buyback is on the table.”
Overall, Tesla aims to produce 20 million vehicles annually by 2030, a lofty
goal, and Musk said he thinks this will take approximately a dozen factories,
with each factory producing 1.5 million to 2 million units per year.
Currently Tesla operates vehicle assembly plants in Shanghai; Fremont,
California; Austin, Texas; and outside of Berlin in Germany. It also produces
batteries at a factory in Sparks, Nevada, that it jointly operates with
Panasonic.
Tesla recently produced its 3 millionth car, Musk said on Thursday, and is
hoping to announce a new factory location later this year.
At the same time, the company is recycling only 50 vehicle battery packs per
week in Nevada, Musk revealed Thursday, explaining that the number is so low
because most battery packs from Tesla cars are still in vehicles in use today.
心得/評論：
馬斯克今年1月1日就提到2022年春天會進入衰退，這次也說通膨頂峰已過，檯面
上的總經大師都不如他...
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