原文標題：
Euro zone inflation hits another record of 9.1% as food and energy prices soar
原文連結：
https://tinyurl.com/2p9hdd3f
發布時間：
WED, AUG 31 20225:07 AM EDT
記者署名：
Hannah Ward-Glenton
原文內容：
Euro zone inflation hit a new record high in August of 9.1%, according to
flash figures from Europe’s statistics office Eurostat, with high energy
prices the main driving force.
根據歐盟官方統計，歐元區通膨率在八月達到歷史新高的9.1%，主因是能源價格
The rate was above expectations, with a Reuters poll of economists
anticipating a rate of 9%. It is the ninth consecutive record for consumer
price rises in the region, with the climb starting back in November 2021.
Headline inflation in the euro zone hit 8.9% (year-on-year) in July.
這比之前預期的還高，之前路透社的經濟學家認為應該會落在9%。
這是整個歐元區消費者物價指數從去年十一月開始連續九個月上漲
七月的YoY通膨率為8.9%
Energy had the highest annual inflation rate at 38.3%, Eurostat said
Wednesday, down slightly from 39.6% in July. Food, alcohol and tobacco were
up 10.6% compared to 9.8% in July, with the knock-on effects of recent
heatwaves across the continent contributing to increases.
歐盟官方統計表示能源通膨指數為38.3%，比七月的39.6%稍低
食物、酒精和菸草為10.6%，比七月9.8%稍高，主因是非洲熱浪帶來的影響
Non-energy industrial goods, such as clothing, household appliances and cars
were up 5% compared to last year, a 0.5 percentage point increase on last
month, while services were up by 3.8% in price year-on-year, 0.1 percentage
points more than in July.
服裝、家電、汽車和非能源工業產品通膨5%，比上個月多了0.5%
服務通膨為3.8%，比七月高0.1%
French and Spanish inflation slows
法國和西班牙通膨減緩
Drilling down into national figures, the French inflation rate decreased to
6.5% in August, down from 6.8% in July. The rate was lower than expectations,
with economists polled by Reuters having anticipated a drop to 6.7%.
從各國來看，法國通膨從七月的6.8%下降至八月的6.5%，比預期還低
路透社之前估計為6.7%
Spain also released slowing inflation figures for August, at 10.3%
year-on-year compared to 10.7% for July, according to the Eurostat flash
estimate.
西班牙八月通膨也下降至10.3%，七月為10.7%
Meanwhile, the region’s largest economy, Germany, saw inflation reach its
highest level in almost half a century at 8.8% year-on-year in August.
德國則是在八月迎來來到半世紀以來最高的8.8%
Estonia currently has the highest inflation rate in the euro zone at 25.2%,
followed by Lithuania (21.1%) and Latvia (20.8%). Malta and Finland follow
France with the lowest inflation rates, at 7.1% and 7.6% respectively.
愛沙尼亞在整個歐盟區通膨排名第一為25.2%，其次是立陶宛(21.1%)和拉脫維亞(20.8%)
馬爾他以及芬蘭有歐盟區最低的通膨率，僅在法國之後為7.1%和7.6%
The ECB ‘has some catching up to do’
歐盟央行"還需要加把勁"
Inflation continues to hit new records just as the European Central Bank
mulls another large interest rate hike for next month.
歐盟央行考慮下個月繼續大幅升息時，通膨依然在肆虐達到新高
The ECB increased interest rates by 50 basis points to zero on July 21 – its
first rate hike in 11 years – and a similar, or larger, hike is now expected
on Sept. 8.
歐盟央行在7/21升息0.5%讓基準利率來到0 - 這是11年來首次
另一次同樣規模等級的升息預計會在9/8
“Some members are inclined to advocate a 75 basis points interest rate
increase,” Peter Schaffrik, global macro strategist at RBC Capital Markets,
told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday.
Peter Schaffrik，RBC資本全球總經策略師告訴CNBC "有些成員傾向升息0.75%"
“Despite the slowdown in the economy that we will almost certainly be
getting, the central banks won’t let up on their hiking path,” he said.
"儘管已經確定將會對經濟成長造成影響，但央行絕對不會放棄升息"
The outlook for Europe’s economy is “pretty bleak,” Kenneth Wattret, head
of economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, told CNBC’s “Street Signs
Europe” on Aug. 23.
S&P 全球市場分析師Kenneth Wattret表示:
"歐元區經濟將會非常慘淡"
心得/評論：
整體來說，整個歐盟/歐元區受傷最大的將會是東歐
1. 升息將會大大衝擊發展中的東歐經濟體
2. 目前通膨最嚴重的就是波海三小國和東歐如捷克等等
3. 不知道各位有沒有注意到，西歐運用一些手段進行保護主義
其中最狠的就是即將新上路的最低工資法案
內容就是該國的最低薪資將會是平均薪資的50%或是中位數的60%
這將會對德法等國有更強的磁吸效應，而東歐將面臨嚴重的人才流失
未來三年內的能源通膨+人才流失，會讓東歐目前工廠大量裁員
4. 挪威因為乾旱，大量水力發電減產所以也減少出口，目前出口的電力也越來越少
而挪威出口電力的價格目前是歐洲最親民的能源了XDDDD
5. 除了歐元區外，英國已經直接對冬天為了供暖做出停電演練
英國是目前歐洲能源危機中最高機率能源崩盤的地區
6. 在2026卡達和美國新天然氣礦場開採前，歐洲都不會看到正常的天然氣價格
7. 目前中國因為各種封城和停產，天然氣需求還沒開到疫情前的水準
一旦中國也加入LNG爭奪戰，情況會更加白熱化
8. 目前TTF 天然氣現貨價格為340歐/MWh，是疫情前價格的16倍
2026年Q1 TTF遠期價格甚至還在85歐/MWh，依然是過去常態的4倍左右
2023年目前的TTF期貨價格為240歐/MWh
LNG爭奪戰在所有學者和經濟學家估計2026年前會持續進行
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