原文標題：
Fed officials see smaller rate hikes coming ‘soon,’ minutes show
原文連結：
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/23/fed-minutes-november-2022.html
發布時間：
PUBLISHED WED, NOV 23 20222:00 PM EST
記者署名：
Jeff Cox
原文內容：
Federal Reserve officials earlier this month agreed that smaller interest
rate increases should happen soon as they evaluate the impact policy is
having on the economy, meeting minutes released Wednesday indicated.
Reflecting statements that multiple officials have made over the past several
weeks, the meeting summary pointed to small rate hikes are coming. Markets
widely expect the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee to step down to
a 0.5 percentage point increase in December, following four straight 0.75
percentage point hikes.
Though hinting that smaller moves were ahead, officials said they still see
little signs of inflation abating. However, some committee members expressed
concern about risks to the financial system should the Fed continue to press
forward at the same aggressive pace.
“A substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of
increase would likely soon be appropriate,” the minutes stated. “The
uncertain lags and magnitudes associated with the effects of monetary policy
actions on economic activity and inflation were among the reasons cited
regarding why such an assessment was important.“
The minutes noted that the smaller hikes would give policymakers a chance to
evaluate the impact of the succession of rate hikes.
The summary noted that a few members indicated that “slowing the pace of
increase could reduce the risk of instability in the financial system.”
Others said they’d like to wait to ease up on the pace. Officials said they
see the balance of risks on the economy now skewed to the downside.
Markets had been looking for clues about not only what the next rate hike
might look like but also for how far policymakers think they’ll have to go
next year to make satisfactory progress against inflation.
Officials at the meeting said it was just as important for the public to
focus more on how far the Fed will go with rates “and the evolution of the
policy stance thereafter, had become more important considerations for
achieving the Committee’s goals than the pace of further increases in the
target range.“
In recent days, officials have spoken largely in unison about the need to
keep up the inflation fight, while also indicating they can pull back on the
level of rate hikes. That means a strong likelihood of a 0.5 percentage point
increase in December, but still an uncertain course after that.
Markets expect a few more rate hikes in 2023, taking the funds rate to around
5%, and then possibly some reductions before year end.
The post-meeting statement from the rate-setting Federal Open Market
Committee added a sentence that markets interpreted as a signal that the Fed
will be doing smaller increases ahead. That sentence read, “In determining
the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take
into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with
which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic
and financial developments.“
Investors saw it as a nod to a reduced intensity of hikes following four
straight 0.75 percentage point increases that took the Fed’s benchmark
borrowing overnight borrowing rate to a range of 3.75-4%, the highest in 14
years.
Several Fed officials have said in recent days that they anticipate a likely
half-point move in December.
“They’re getting to a point where they don’t have to move so quickly. That
’s helpful since they don’t know exactly how much tightening they’re going
to have to do,” said Bill English, a former Fed official now with the Yale
School of Management. “They emphasize policy works with lags, so it’s
helpful to be able to go a little bit more slowly.“
Inflation data lately has been showing some encouraging signs while remaining
well above the central bank’s 2% official target.
The consumer price index in October was up 7.7% from a year ago, the lowest
reading since January. However, a measure the Fed follows more closely, the
personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy,
showed a 5.1% annual rise in September, up 0.2 percentage points from August
and the highest reading since March.
Those reports came out after the November Fed meeting. Several officials said
they viewed the reports positively but will need to see more before they
consider easing up on policy tightening.
The Fed has been the target lately of some criticism that it could be
tightening too much. The worry is that policymakers are too focused on
backward-looking data and missing signs that inflation is ebbing and growth
is slowing.
However, English expects the Fed officials to keep their collective foot on
the break until there are clearer signals that prices are falling. He added
that the Fed is willing to risk a slowing economy as it pursues its goal.
“They have risks in both directions if doing too little and doing too much.
They’ve been fairly clear that they view the risks of inflation getting out
of the box and the need to do a really big tightening as the biggest risk,”
he said “It’s a hard time to be Jay Powell.”
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(不負責網頁翻譯)
會議紀要顯示，美聯儲官員預計“很快”將出現較小的加息
美聯儲官員本月早些時候同意，一旦他們評估政策對經濟的影響，應該很快就會進行較小
的加息，週三公佈的會議紀要顯示。
會議摘要反映了多位官員在過去幾周發表的聲明，指出小幅加息即將到來。市場普遍預計
，制定利率的聯邦公開市場委員會在連續四次加息0.75個百分點後，12月將下調至0.5個
百分點。
儘管暗示未來將有較小的舉措，但官員們表示，他們仍然看不到通脹減弱的跡象。然而，
一些委員會成員對美聯儲繼續以同樣激進的速度推進對金融體系的風險表示擔憂。
“絕大多數出席者認為，放緩增長速度可能很快就會是合適的，”會議紀要稱。“與貨幣
政策行動對經濟活動和通貨膨脹的影響相關的不確定滯後和幅度是這種評估為何重要的原
因之一。
會議紀要指出，較小的加息將使政策制定者有機會評估連續加息的影響。
摘要指出，一些成員表示，「放慢增長速度可以降低金融體系不穩定的風險。其他人則表
示，他們想等待以放鬆步伐。官員們表示，他們認為經濟風險的平衡現在偏向下行。
市場一直在尋找線索，不僅要瞭解下一次加息可能是什麼樣子，還要尋找政策制定者認為
明年必須走多遠才能在通脹方面取得令人滿意的進展。
與會官員表示，公眾同樣重要的是更多地關注美聯儲將在利率方面走多遠，“以及此後政
策立場的演變，已成為實現委員會目標的更重要的考慮因素，而不是進一步提高目標範圍
的步伐。
最近幾天，官員們基本上一致表示需要繼續與通脹作鬥爭，同時也表示他們可以撤回加息
水準。這意味著12月加息0.5個百分點的可能性很大，但之後仍然是一個不確定的過程。
市場預計 2023 年將再升息幾次，將基金利率提高到 5% 左右，然後可能在年底前下調一
些。
制定利率的聯邦公開市場委員會（Federal Open Market Committee）的會後聲明增加了
一句話，市場將其解讀為美聯儲將在未來進行較小加息的信號。這句話是：「在確定未來
目標區間增長的速度時，委員會將考慮貨幣政策的累積收緊，貨幣政策影響經濟活動和通
貨膨脹的滯後性，以及經濟和金融發展。
投資者認為這是對美聯儲連續四次加息0.75個百分點后加息強度降低的認可，這使得美聯
儲的基準借款隔夜借利率達到3.75-4%的區間，為14年來的最高水準。
幾位美聯儲官員ALS最近幾天表示，他們預計12月可能會有半個百分點的變動。
他們正在達到一個不必如此迅速行動的地步。這很有幫助，因為他們不知道他們到底要收
緊多少，「前美聯儲官員比爾·英格利希（Bill English）說，他現在在耶魯大學管理學
院工作。“他們強調政策工作滯後，所以能夠慢一點是有説明的。
最近的通脹數據顯示出一些令人鼓舞的跡象，但仍遠高於央行2%的官方目標。
10月份消費者價格指數同比上漲7.7%，為1月份以來的最低水準。然而，美聯儲更密切關
注的一項指標，即不包括食品和能源的個人消費支出價格指數，9 月份同比上漲 5.1%，
比 8 月份上升 0.2 個百分點，是 3 月份以來的最高水準。
這些報告是在11月美聯儲會議之後發佈的。幾位官員表示，他們對這些報告持積極態度，
但在考慮放鬆政策收緊之前，還需要看到更多。
美聯儲最近一直是一些批評的目標，稱其可能收緊太多。令人擔憂的是，政策制定者過於
關注回顧性數據，而忽略了通脹正在消退、增長放緩的跡象。
然而，英格利希預計美聯儲官員將保持集體休息，直到有更明確的信號表明價格正在下跌
。他補充說，美聯儲願意在追求目標時冒經濟放緩的風險。
“如果做得太少和做得太多，他們在兩個方向上都有風險。他們相當清楚，他們認為通脹
脫離框框的風險以及進行真正大緊縮的必要性是最大的風險，“他說，”現在很難成為傑
伊鮑威爾。
心得/評論：
意外嗎?我是不意外拉
畢竟前陣子一片樂觀 想必也是有些風聲流出
現在就看12/15的FOMC會不會符合預期了
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