原文標題：
Fed's James Bullard pushes for faster rate hikes, sees ‘good shot’ at
beating inflation
原文連結：https://cnb.cx/41gpg98
發布時間：WED, FEB 22 20237:59 AM EST
記者署名：Jeff Cox
原文內容：
-St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told CNBC that a more aggressive
interest rate hike now would give the FOMC a better chance to bring down
inflation.
-The central bank official also said he thinks “we have a good shot at
beating inflation in 2023” without creating a recession.
-Bullard advocates for a top rate of nearly 5.4%, about in line with market
pricing.
St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard expressed confidence that
the central bank can beat inflation and advocated Wednesday for stepping up
the pace in the battle.
Bullard told CNBC that a more aggressive interest rate hike now would give
the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee a better chance to bring down
inflation that, while falling some off the precarious levels of 2022, is
still high.
“It has become popular to say, ‘Let’s slow down and feel our way to where
we need to be.’ We still haven’t gotten to the point where the committee
put the so-called terminal rate,” he said during a live “Squawk Box”
interview. “Get to that level and then feel your way around and see what
you need to do. You’ll know when you’re there when the next move could be
up or down.”
Those comments come a week after Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta
Mester both said they were pushing for a half-percentage point rate hike at
the last meeting, rather than the quarter-point move the FOMC ultimately
approved.
They said they would continue to favor a more aggressive move at the March
meeting. Markets have been volatile in the wake of those remarks as well as a
batch of inflation data that came in higher than expected, stoking fears that
the Fed has more work to do to bring down prices.
But Bullard said the more aggressive move would be part of a strategy that he
thinks ultimately will be successful.
“If inflation continues to come down, I think we’ll be fine,” he said. “
Our risk now is inflation doesn’t come down and reaccelerates, and then what
do you do? We are going to have to react, and if inflation doesn’t start to
come down, you know, you risk this replay of the 1970s ... and you don’t
want to get into that. Let’s be sharp now, let’s get inflation under
control in 2023.”
Despite the tougher talk and hot inflation data, markets still largely expect
the Fed to go with the quarter-point move next month, according to CME Group
data.
Futures trading indicates, however, that the benchmark short-term borrowing
rate will top out at a “terminal” level of 5.36% this summer, higher than
the 5.1% estimate committee members made in December but about in line with
Bullard’s projection of a 5.375% rate.
Investors fear that higher rates could tip the economy into recession. Major
averages saw their biggest sell-off of the year Tuesday, erasing all the
gains the Dow Jones Industrial Average
had made in 2023.
But Bullard said he thinks
“we have a good shot at beating inflation in 2023”
without creating a recession.
“You’ve got China coming on board. You’ve got a stronger Europe than we
thought. It kind of seems like the U.S. economy might be more resilient than
markets thought, let’s say six or eight weeks ago,” he said.
Investors will get another look inside the Fed’s thinking later Wednesday
when the FOMC releases the minutes from the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting at 2 p.m.
ET.
-美國聯邦儲備銀行聖路易斯分行行長詹姆斯·布拉德告訴CNBC，現在更積極地加息將為聯
邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)帶來更好的機會來降低通貨膨脹率。
-這位央行官員還表示，他認為“我們有很好的機會在2023年擊敗通貨膨脹，而不會引發
經濟衰退”。
-布拉德主張將最高利率提高到近5.4％，與市場價格大致相符。
聖路易斯聯邦儲備銀行行長詹姆斯·布拉德表達了對央行擊敗通貨膨脹的信心，並在週三
呼籲加快抗擊的步伐。
布拉德告訴CNBC，現在更積極地加息將為聯邦公開市場委員會提供更好的機會來降低通脹
，儘管通脹已從2022年危險的水平下降，但仍然處於較高的水平。
他在直播的“Squawk Box”採訪中說：“現在流行的是說'讓我們減速，感受我們需要到
達的地方'。我們仍然沒有達到委員會所謂的終端利率。達到這個水平，然後憑感覺找到
自己需要做的事情。當下一步可能是升或降時，你就會知道自己已經到達了那個水平。"
在這些評論一周前，布拉德和克利夫蘭聯邦儲備銀行行長洛雷塔·梅斯特都表示，他們在
上次會議上推動半個百分點的加息，而不是聯邦公開市場委員會最終批准的0.25個百分點
。
他們表示，他們將繼續支持在三月份的會議上採取更積極的措施。這些言論以及一批通脹
數據高於預期，引發了市場的波動，引發了人們對聯邦儲備銀行需要更多工作來降低物價
的擔憂。
但布拉德表示，更積極的措施將是他認為最終會成功的策略的一部分。
他說：“如果通脹繼續下降，我想我們會沒事的。我們現在的風險是通脹不下降，重新加
速，然後你要怎麼辦？我們必須做出反應，如果通脹不開始下降，你就冒著重演1970年代
的風險..你不想陷入這種局面。現在讓我們嚴明起來，在2023年將通脹控制下來。"
儘管講話更為強硬，通脹數據也持續走高，但根據芝商所（CME Group）的數據，市場仍
普遍預計下個月聯邦儲備委員會會選擇加息0.25個百分點的幅度。
然而，期貨交易表明，基準短期借款利率將在今年夏季達到終端水準，預計為5.36%，高
於委員會成員在去年12月做出的5.1%估計，但與布拉德預測的5.375%利率相符。
投資者擔心更高的利率可能會使經濟陷入衰退。週二，主要股指出現了本年度最大的拋售
，抹去了道瓊斯工業平均指數在2023年取得的所有漲幅。
但是，布拉德表示，他認為「我們有很大機會在2023年打敗通脹而不會引發衰退」
他說：「中國正在恢復，歐洲比我們預想的更強勁。而美國經濟可能比市場在六到八周
前認為的更具有彈性。"
投資者將在週三晚些時候得到另一個瞭解美聯儲思路的機會，屆時FOMC將在美國東部時間
下午2點公佈1月31日至2月1日會議的會議紀要。
心得/評論：
雖然鷹王又在放鷹,但大家都能夠預期的事情就沒甚麼好怕了.
而且雖然提倡盡速升息,而且終端利率可能會上調,但距離目前估計也不會太多.
市場還是對即將到來的降息充滿著信心.(即使大家都預測要2024才有可能)
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